長(zhǎng)江水質(zhì)的評(píng)價(jià)和預(yù)測(cè)為題的論文摘要
摘要
長(zhǎng)江是我國(guó)第1、世界第3大河流，長(zhǎng)江水質(zhì)的污染程度日趨嚴(yán)重，已引起了相關(guān)政府部門和專家們的高度重視。本文對(duì)長(zhǎng)江近年來的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，建立了對(duì)長(zhǎng)江水質(zhì)的`評(píng)價(jià)和趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)模型。
針對(duì)問題1，本文采用“客觀性權(quán)重的變異系數(shù)法”和統(tǒng)計(jì)回歸兩種方法，給出了兩個(gè)長(zhǎng)江水質(zhì)評(píng)價(jià)模型。兩個(gè)模型各有特色，并利用模型對(duì)長(zhǎng)江水質(zhì)進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)。
針對(duì)問題2，本文以各個(gè)站點(diǎn)間的污染物排放量作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，通過分析和計(jì)算，得出如下結(jié)論：高錳酸鹽和氨氮污染物主要集中在湖北宜昌至湖南岳陽段。
針對(duì)問題3，本文采用指數(shù)平滑法，建立了時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)模型。
針對(duì)問題4，本文采用指數(shù)平滑法預(yù)測(cè)了長(zhǎng)江未來10年的污水排放量。經(jīng)過分析計(jì)算得出污水排放量對(duì)長(zhǎng)江水質(zhì)的影響。通過優(yōu)化模型得到未來10年長(zhǎng)江的污水處理量最小值分別為：關(guān)鍵詞：客觀性權(quán)重的變異系數(shù)法，統(tǒng)計(jì)回歸,指數(shù)平滑法。
The estimation and trend forecast of the quality of Changjiang River’s water
Abstract
The Changjiang River is the first longest River in our country, and the third longest River in the world. But its water was polluted worse and worse. It has aroused the attention of related government department and experts. This report analyzed the recent years’ survey of the Changjiang River, and had made water quality estimate and trend forecast model.
As to first problem, the report has to methods: the coefficient variation of objectivity weighty and the regress of Stat. Each of the two models has its own characters. And it estimated the water quality by the two ways.
As to second problem, the report made let quantity of contamination between two points as the estimated standard. By analyzing and calculating I find the result. The result is the main pollution, CODMn and NH3-N, is between HubeiYichang and HunanYueyang.
As to third problem, it had the smooth exponential method, and made time list forecast model.
As to forth problem, it forecasted the let quantity of contamination in 10 years future by the smooth exponential method. After analysis and calculation, the minimum of treading saluted water quantity is:Keyword: the coefficient variation of objectivity weighty; the regress of Stat.; the smooth exponential method
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